What's On The Line? Playoff Picture

Rails

STILL A LOT TO PLAY FOR

With 3 weeks remaining in the Regular Season, there is still a lot of movement possible.

Atop the league are the Fargo Invaders (7-0).  They have clinched the NSFL West (up 3 games, with 2 to play), so they will get either a #1 or #2 seed.  The Invaders travel to the Sabercats, and then the Broncos; a win at either game clinches Home-field throughout the playoffs as the 1-seed.  Even with Losses, the Sabercats would have to win all 3 of their remaining games including a win over the Invaders by more than 43 points (to even the season series point differential).  So as long as the Invaders don’t lose by 44, followed by a loss to the Broncos; the #1 seed is theirs. HIGH: #1, LOW: #2

  • #1 – Win 1 game OR don’t lose by 43+ pts vs Sabercats
  • #2 – Lose both games, while losing by 43+ pts vs Sabercats

Currently the Twin City Sabercats (4-2) hold their destiny in their own hands.  Maybe not for the 1 seed, but for the NSFL East Division Title.  If they aren’t able to get past Fargo on the 9th they will still be 1-game up on Patriots, which would setup a Huge Game on July 16th.  If the Sabercats defeat the Patriots, they would clinch the NSFL East & host a Semi-Final game as #2 seed.  Should the Patriots win, both teams would have similar Overall & Division records with 1 game to play (Sabercats/Renegades, Patriots/Broncos).  If the Patriots win by 2 points or more over the Sabercats & they end with similar records, the Patriots would be #2.  The Sabercats last game of the year, against the Renegades could then decide who gets a Bye & the #3 seed, and who hosts in Wild Card weekend.  If the Sabercats lose-out and the Broncos win-out, they would have identical records; however, the Sabercats are (2-0) vs the Broncos, so would keep the #4 seed. It will come down to the Patriots game for #2, & the Renegades game for #3.  Sabercats won the first matchup at South Metro, if they win again they will be the #2 seed.  HIGH: #1, LOW: #4

  • #1 – Win Out, Defeat Fargo by 43+ points AND Fargo lose vs Broncos
  • #2 – Defeat South Metro Patriots
  • #3 – Lose to Patriots, Defeat Granite City Renegades by 5+ points
  • #4 – Lose to Patriots, Renegades win, or are within 4 points on 7/23

As for the South Metro Patriots (3-4), they play @Sabercats & Home vs Broncos.  The Big game for the Patriots will be against the Sabercats, which could be for the Division Title.  To win the Division they will have to beat the Sabercats by 2 points or more, while also taking care of the Broncos the last week of the season.  This is also pending a victory for the Invaders over the Sabercats on (7/9).  If the Patriots lose to the Sabercats, they would join the Wild Card race.  To get ahead of the Renegades, they would need the Broncos & Sabercats to defeat the Renegades in those matchups. It could also turn the Patriot/Bronco game into a game to decide who hosts the Wild Card game on 7/30; the Broncos would also need a win vs Renegades or Invaders for that to happen. It’s likely the Patriots will be #2 or #4, if they don’t get help they will be #4 and host Wild Card weekend. HIGH: #2, LOW: #5

  • #2 – Defeat the Sabercats by 2+ points AND Sabercats lose another game (vs Invaders or Renegades)
  • #3 – Lose vs Sabercats, Defeat Broncos AND Renegades lose both games (Broncos & Sabercats)
  • #4 – Lose vs Sabercats, defeat or be within 3 points of Broncos OR Broncos lose to Invaders and Renegades
  • #5 – Lose vs Sabercats & Broncos (by 4+ points) AND Broncos defeat Renegades or Invaders

The Granite City Renegades (4-3) are fighting for the #3 spot & a first-round bye.  If they win-out, they will get the #3 seed.  For the Renegades to drop to #4, it will depend on who their wild card competition is, meaning the Patriot/Sabercat game.  If the Patriots win, it will make the Renegade/Sabercat game a game for a First Round Bye.  If the Sabercats defeat the Patriots, Renegades must win both their games to ensure the #3 seed.  If the Broncos win-out & the Renegades lose-out, they could fall to #5.  A #4 or #5 is possible, but it’s likely the Renegades will be #3.  HIGH: #3, LOW #5

  • #3 – Defeat Sabercats OR Defeat Broncos & Sabercats defeat Patriots
  • #4 – Lose to Sabercats & Patriots defeat Sabercats, OR lose both & Broncos lose 1
  • #5 – Lose both AND Broncos win-out

Though the West Central Broncos are (1-5), they still have a shot at the #3 seed & a first round bye.  It would take them winning all 3 games (Patriots by 4+ and Renegades by 17+), while getting more help via losses by Renegades & Patriots.  It is more plausible that they can get the #4 seed though; with a win over the Invaders or Renegades, and a win over the Patriots by 4+ points, while the Patriots also lose to the Sabercats.  It’s tough to count on other teams to lose, so it’s likely the Broncos will be #5.  HIGH: #3, LOW: #5

  • #3 – Win all 3 remaining games AND Renegades lose-out & Patriots lose-out
  • #4 – Defeat Patriots by 4+ points AND Defeat Invaders or Renegades
  • #5 – Lose 2 of remaining games